low-probability, high-impact outcomes

There's an interesting Earth System Dynamics Discussion paper presenting a a simple proposal to improve the contribution of IPCC WG1 to the assessment and communication of climate change risks. Essentially, one can estimate the risk of some outcome by considering the likelihood of that outcome multiplied by the impact of that outcome. This is illustrated…

New tools and methods for High-Impact Low-Probability (HILP) event analysis - #SINTEFblog

Risk Likelihood: Meaning, Usage, Calculation, and More - ECLIPSE Suite

4 Risk Identification and Analysis, The Owner's Role in Project Risk Management

High Medium Low Extreme Negligible Impact Probability, PowerPoint Templates Backgrounds, Template PPT Graphics

Risk matrices - Barrier Based Risk Management Knowledge base

Qualitative Risk Analysis (consequence X likelihood)

Risk Management Matrix Showing Probability And Impact And High Low Risk, Templates PowerPoint Slides, PPT Presentation Backgrounds

A Risk/Impact Probability Chart

Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios

Dr Valérie Masson-Delmotte @valmasdel.bsky.social on X: Low-likelihood, high-impact outcomes could occur at global and regional scales even for global warming within the very likely range for a given greenhouse emissions scenario. The

Studio AM - When thinking about risk, we have to keep in mind two things: Risk probability and risk impact. Risk probability reflects on what the chances are that a risk will